Will silver prices rise with higher expectation of rate cut in September? [SMM analysis]

Published: May 9, 2024 16:41

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The Federal Reserve announced that it would maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5.25%-5.5%, and would slow down the pace of balance sheet reduction from June.

The Federal Reserve announced that it would maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5.25%-5.5%, and would slow down the pace of balance sheet reduction from June. A series of labor data released subsequently showed a downward trend, and the market's expectations for a September interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve increased.
[Macro data]:

Positive: The U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI in April was 49.2, lower than the previous value of 50.3 and the expected value of 50; the U.S. unemployment rate in April was 3.9%, higher than the previous value and the expected value of 3.8%; the U.S. April seasonally adjusted The announced value of non-farm employment was 175,000, lower than the expected value of 315,000 and the expected value of 243,000.

Negative: The ADP employment number in the United States in April was announced to be 192,000, lower than the previous value of 208,000 and higher than the expected value of 175,000; the number of initial jobless claims in the United States in the week ending April 27 was announced to be 208,000, the same as the previous value and lower than the expected value of 212,000. The decline in labor data has caused the market to increase the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September. Silver prices began to rise slightly during the Labour Day holidays. As the stock market also performed relatively well during the holidays and the market's capital chain was not too ample, the increase in silver prices during the holidays was limited. Prices are expected to inch up this week.

For the spot market, some downstream manufacturers have already stocked up a week before the Labour Day holiday to facilitate transportation and production in the following week. Downstream companies in some industries have worked overtime at different times during the Labour Day holiday to complete orders. After the holiday, the purchasing demand of manufacturers is weak due to the large amount of stocking up before the holiday. Traders that had cleared inventory before the holiday purchased actively.

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